2024

Republican Party Factions in this cycle: 

MODERATE ESTABLISHMENT: Socially Moderate to Conservative, Economically Conservative but Globalist (Soft on Illegal Immigration) and Statist

     Sub Group for this cycle: Anti -Trump: Opposed to all things Trump 

STRADDLERS: Sub Group of Anti-Trumpers who are more gentle by using the argument that Trump can't win again rather than just spewing Trump hate . They Straddle the line between the base and Anti-Trump establishment Globalists.

POPULIST RIGHT: Stands for 3 things--1) Less Government (Less Regulation) 2) Lower Taxes (Rather than Higher Taxes) 3) Constitutional Rights (such as Free Speech and Freedom of Religion) as well as being Anti-Globalist (Against Illegal Immigration)

 

Former President Donald Trump (Florida)

Can he make a comeback?

His opposition is firm but so is his support.

As usual - totally unpredictable. 

Hated by the Establishment and Globalists. 

 

Governor Ron DeSantis (Florida)

The only one who appears to be able to give Trump a challenge.

Likely nominee if Trump doesn't actually run.

Reaganesque appeal as getting things done for Conservatives. 

 

Former Vice President Mike Pence (Indiana)

Will his falling out with Trump help or hurt?

IF Trump doesn't actually run he might be only one to give DeSantis a fight but both politically agree on about everything. 

 

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (South Carolina) 

Has the impressive resume of experience as a former governor and ambassador to the U.N. 

Has a Conservative track record yet liked by the Establishment.

IF Trump doesn't run she could be competative as an alternative to DeSantis or Pence if they stumble.

 

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (Kansas)

Good foreign policy experience.

But can he really challenge his former boss Trump? 

And can he break out of the pack against bigger names IF Trump doesn't run? 

 

Former Governor Chris Christie (New Jersey)

To far Left for the Republican base.....also, angry with Trump because he got passed over for V.P. last time. ....has joined the anti-Trumpers as a personal vendetta against Trump.

 

Governor Chris Sununu (New Hampshire)

A STRADDLER.

Chatter has sprouted up about Sununu which stems from the Establishment.

He appears to be trying to have a foot in both camps as a "Conservative" yet vying to be an anti-Trumper. 

Most have either been fully in one camp or the other---either openly an anti-Trumper OR in the pro-Trump base but taking small swipes at Trump as a potential rival.

Sununu is the first to try and have it both ways hardcore openly. 

 

Governor Kristi Noem (South Dakota)

Was considered shortly in 2020 by Trump as a possible replacement for V.P. of Pence while he looked for a woman to put on the ticket.

But IF she does run --- can she break out of the pack? 

 

Former U.S. Congresswoman Liz Cheney (Wyoming)

Hardcore Anti-Trumper...always hinting at challenging Trump.

Now more bitter since being thrown out in the G.O.P. House Primary in a Landslide.

Will that bitterness make her more likely to run? 

 

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (Texas)

Round 2? In 2016 he ended up the runner up to Trump.

Will he run against Trump? Remember that in 2016 Trump let him speak at the convention and he took swipe at Trump from the convention podium....yet he was a staunch supprter of Trump on policy while President.

Have old wounds healed or will he stick it to Trump?

Cruz rose to prominence as a triad of young Tea Party Republican senators in the early 20-teens of Cruz-Rubio-Paul.

 

 U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (Florida)

Round 2? He ran well past Super Tuesday in 2016.

Had the makings of a young Hispanic Ronald Reagan.

Rubio rose to prominence as a triad of young Tea Party Republican senators in the early 20-teens of Cruz-Rubio-Paul.

 

U.S. Senator Rand Paul (Kentucky) 

Round 2? Ran in 2016.

Has been on point as the arch-nemisis of Dr. Fauci. But would that be enough to break through the clutter of the pack?

From the smaller Libertarian sub-wing of the party that has been mostly lumped in with the larger Tea Party wing.

Paul rose to prominence as a triad of young Tea Party Republican senators in the early 20-teens of Cruz-Rubio-Paul.

 

Governor Greg Abbott (Texas)

Problem for Abbott IF he jumps in the race is that he tries to copy DeSantis after the fact.

Positive side is at least he is doing things now ... but could be considered a Johnny-Come-lately to the party, 

U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (Missouri)

One of a duo of newer Conservative firebrands formed in the late 20-teens with Tom Cotton.

But they haven't seemed to click with the base yet in the way the earlier triad of Cruz-Rubio-Paul did earlier in the decade. That said Hawley is impressive and quick in debate.

He will have to decide whether to focus on his Senate re-election or run for President.

U.S. Senator Tom Cotton (Arkansas)

One of a duo of newer Conservative firebrands formed in the late 20-teens with Josh Hawley.

But they haven't seemed to click with the base yet in the way the earlier triad of Cruz-Rubio-Paul did earlier in the decade. 

 

U.S. Senator Rick Scott (Florida) 

Rick Scott doesn't really have a personal base carved out or name recognition.

U.S. Senator Tim Scott (South Carolina)

Shot up through the Tea Party ranks of his home state.

Does he have the base yet within the party to break through?

 

Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton (Maryland)

Anti-Trumper. 

Foreign Policy Specialist.

Former Governor Asa Hutchinson (Arkansas)

Anti-Trumper. No base, too bland, No Chance.

Governor Glenn Youngkin (Virginia)

New Kid on the Block.

Does he have the clout if he really runs to break through the pack?

Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (Pennsylvania) 

Last year in primary polls, without his father in the polls, he was pulling double digits---but not near as strong as his dad.

If his father doesn't really follow through---can Don Jr. keep together the primary coalition his father had?

Former 2012 V.P. Candidate Paul Ryan (Wisconsin)

A Straddler.

One time rising star---faded after becoming too Establishment while speaker of the House.

 

Former Governor Larry Hogan (Maryland)

Hardcore Anti-Trumper and most liberal potential candidate on the possible field list.

No Chance--EVER..... 

 

Governor Brian Kemp (Georgia)

Straddler.....but openly more conservative than other Straddlers and openly will support Trump if the party nominee. 

 

CEO  Vivek Ramaswamy (Ohio)

Founder & CEO of an anti-woke organization. That's a plus but he has no name recognition or personal following yet. Another major plus is that he is the only one firmly going after the ESG nonsense by big banks.

 

Talk Show Host Larry Elder (California)

Can the conservative who took on Newsom in a special recall election in California gain traction in a crowded field? 

 

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (Florida)

Considers himself to be a moderate.  

Likely angling for a V.P. slot.

 

Governor Doug Burgum (North Dakota) 

A Wild Card.

Considered to be an outsider of the establishment modeled after Trump. 

 

Former U.S. Congressman Will Hurd (Texas)

Just another hardcore Anti-Trumper.

Former Cranston, Rhode Island Mayor Steve Laffey (Colorado)

.

Considers himself a Conservative/Populist